A Baltimore Ravens All-Pro can destroy the market with a lucrative contract decision this offseason.
Another season ended in disappointment when it mattered most, but the Baltimore Ravens still have a talented core they need to secure for the future, starting with All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, who is predicted to earn a market-destroying contract extension this offseason.
The prediction comes from Spotrac.com Managing Editor Michael Ginnitti. He pointed out "the safety market got a nice bump last offseason with Antoine Winfield Jr.'s extension in Tampa Bay. Hamilton should all but destroy his numbers ($21M APY, 53.5% guaranteed)."
Ginnitti predicts Hamilton will get a three-year deal worth $75 million, with $58 million in guaranteed money. That's handsome reward for a first-round pick who's lived up to the billing and transformed a struggling Ravens defense this season by showcasing the full range of his versatility.
Hamilton deserves a big payday after his move from box safety to the deep third solidified a leaky pass defense. He joined Ar'Darius Washington in a new starting duo on the back end and explained the switch to Doug Farrar of Athlon Sports back in November: "The coaches, they just felt like for our defense, it would be best for me to kind of chill on a lot of the nickel stuff and dime stuff, and go back to playing safety. Just kind of be that backstop for our defense. We were struggling against the pass, and I think we were kind of experimenting -- trying new stuff out."
Moving Hamilton further back from the line of scrimmage paid dividends. The transformation was revealed by these numbers and highlights from Farrar: "The @Ravens' pass defense before: +0.08 EPA/Play, fourth-worst in the NFL. Since Week 11: -0.17 EPA/Play, by far the best in the league."
Those statistics help make the case for the Ravens to extend Hamilton early. The 14th player selected in the 2022 NFL draft still has two years remaining on his rookie deal, but as Ginnitti put it, "Assuming the Ravens exercise Hamilton's 5th-year option (estimated $18.3M) before extending him, he'll be carrying around $21M with him into the negotiation."
That would be a smart move to avoid paying an eye-watering sum to a roving playmaker who is still going to cost the Ravens a pretty penny. Better the Ravens work out some figures now, before Hamilton adds to an impressive body of work and further increases his value.
Any contract decisions could be based on how the Ravens plan to deploy Hamilton moving forward.
Hamilton's flexibility gives the Ravens options but they were a better defense once he moved into a more defined role. Nonetheless, the Ravens sound eager to take greater advantage of Hamilton's diverse skill-set next season.
Comments from general manager Eric DeCosta suggest the team will acquire another safety for "multiplicity" and the chance to shift Hamilton back to the line of scrimmage, per The Baltimore Banner's Jonas Shaffer.
Even though DeCosta acknowledged how well Hamilton played at free safety, changes are afoot in the secondary. Changes that could also include replacing struggling cornerback Brandon Stephens with a risky pick in this year's draft.
Whoever plays cornerback will feel better with Hamilton continuing to lock down one safety spot. However the Ravens use him, Hamilton is somebody the team needs to help keep them in the thick of the battle for supremacy in a loaded AFC.