Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.

Fantasy managers who drafted Shaw were ecstatic to find out he had made the trip with the big league club and would be in the starting lineup for game one of the Tokyo Series. On Tuesday, March 18th, Matt Shaw made his big league debut and had to immediately face one of the game's most prominent pitchers in his own country. The young Cubs prospect saw 10 pitches from Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that first game, two at-bats ending in a strikeout and a groundout.

Once the bullpen took over, Shaw didn't necessarily see a degradation of pitch quality. He went from an elite starting pitcher in Yamamoto to a good relief pitcher in Ben Casparius. The Dodger righty greeted him with 97 MPH at the top of the zone. Shaw put it in play, a groundout to Tommy Edman. He then capped off his debut with a strikeout on three pitches from the Dodgers' new beast closer, Tanner Scott. Welcome to the bigs. Tomorrow will be better.

At the earliest iteration of my Third Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings Shaw didn't make the list. It was quickly pointed out:

This was before Isaac Paredes had been traded to the Houston Astros and Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox. Shaw's playing time potential was unclear. But once those moves happened, Shaw seemed like he might be the only option to play the position for the Cubs and he was brought into my rankings:

Matt Shaw now joins...as a possibility for the third base position out of Spring Training. I've mostly brought him into the ranks because RosterResource has him lined up as the Cubs' third baseman in 2025, now that Paredes is in Houston. Shaw has real pedigree and his section of the most recent Cubs prospect assessment makes him a very intriguing player going into 2025. It's very possible he could soar up these ranks in the Spring.

RosterResource's playing time projection was tested early and got it right. Shaw was back in the lineup for game two of the Tokyo Series on March 19th, and got his first big league hit:

Shaw would have preferred a cleaner ball in play, but a hit is a hit. Prior to his debut, I was preaching patience and wasn't pushing the young third baseman up my ranks:

Shaw's name has come up in many fantasy baseball offseason rumblings and I'm trying not to get excited about a player who has not yet recorded a major league plate appearance. Let's all take a chill pill.

Now, as Shaw seems to have made the major league roster, he needs to be brought up the ranks, but not by much. Not yet at least. Day two in the big leagues resulted in a hit, but Shaw will have his work cut out for him if he wants to stay there. He struggled in his last at-bat against Tanner Scott, particularly with high heat:

It's unfair to judge a rookie ballplayer on two games in another country facing what could end up being one of the greatest teams of all time. The Dodgers bullpen is almost as scary as its starting rotation and traveling halfway across the planet can't be the best way to get your mind and body right for your first big league game. Shaw had an oblique injury at the very beginning of spring training and only accumulated 16 at-bats in Arizona. His slash line through those 16 ABs sits at .313/.421/.375. Anyone would call that a good spring.

But predicting how good Shaw will be in 2025 is a cold start problem. Here are three fairly different projections with the component ATC projection representing an average approach:

In 2023, before he was drafted, he finished out his college career with 24 home runs for the Maryland Terrapins. Once he became a Cub, he finished out that summer slashing .357/.400/.618 in 38 minor league games stretched across three levels. That turned heads. Then in 2024, to prove it wasn't a fluke, Shaw played in 121 games between AA and AAA and slashed .379/.488/.394. That drop in slugging percentage still resulted in 21 home runs.

Now, it's time for the big leagues and we'll all have to wait to see if Shaw can handle big-league pitching. The potential is there and each projection system aside from THE BAT X expects Shaw to slug above average. Even with some variation, ATC's Vol stat, which measures the volatility across the different projection systems in a player's projection, is a fairly low 2.07, suggesting most systems agree on Shaw. So draft away, but don't inflate the price too much. There's a world in which Shaw sticks around all year and matches that incredible OOPSY projection. There's also one in which he struggles to catch up to big-league velocity and needs to head back down to AAA to build up his confidence.

Lastly, the question of whether he can handle the third base position defensively remains. In the 18 innings in which he fielded the position in Tokyo, he made a throwing error. But, he showed flashes of range that could easily compliment the rangy Dansby Swanson next to him at shortstop and Tokyo's artificial turf shouldn't be the ultimate test of Shaws defensive potential. Still, it's something to keep an eye on. There's no doubt Shaw will be tested in 2025, but fantasy managers who already drafted him should let out a sigh of relief. He made it to the big leagues.

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PS: How many MLB debuts have occurred in another country? I don't know the answer, but I'm sure someone in this great community with a Baseball-Reference.com Stathead membership could find an answer. If you can, place what you've found in the comments section.