The possibility that the NHL's salary cap could go up by as much as $9 million this offseason looms large for all 32 teams and their front offices.
It will likely impact negotiations with every free agent, as player agents try to navigate a new world based on a cap that could climb well above $100 million in the years to come. And it could also affect the trade deadline, as buyers and sellers attempt to make sense of how being flush with cash come July 1 should change their decisions in the short term.
At minimum, the NHL's cap will rise to $92.4 million next year, which is a potential infusion of $141 million into the system. At the high end, the new money total could hit $288 million.
By my calculations, the average NHL team has already committed to $68 million in spending for next season. The average team has also already signed 14.7 players to NHL contracts for next year, with 470 players having deals and likely to make rosters.
That new money, then, will go to the remaining six to eight players on every team.
The average NHL team has $25 million in cap space remaining for next season but needs to set aside roughly $7 million of that to re-sign their restricted free agents. The average team also has $1.4 million in "dead" money -- cash allocated to buyouts or retained salary transactions -- and $1.2 million to players expected to remain on LTIR for the full season.
Even with the RFAs, dead money and LTIR accounted for, however, there will be $650 million in 2025-26 dollars available to spend overall in the next eight months.
For the purposes of this article, I've gone with a midpoint of a $94 million cap for next season. I've also ranked all 32 teams based on how much cap flexibility they have going forward, their spending efficiency and lack of "dead" money, as well as the quality of the roster they already have in place.
This should give us a good idea of the teams best positioned to take advantage in this new world order of bigger cap increases and a new collective bargaining agreement in 2026.
Carolina is basically in the ideal position in the NHL right now. The Hurricanes are consistently one of the best teams in the NHL (second in the standings), they have almost no bad contracts (other than maybe the Jesperi Kotkaniemi revenge deal), and all of their key stars are locked up.
Burns is 40 in March, so he represents a key decision, as he still leads the team in ice time and makes sense to bring back on a shorter-term deal. But the Canes have so much cap space that they can re-sign the whole gang and add reinforcements if they so choose.
The Jets are at the very top of the standings after a remarkable 18-7-0 start. They've locked their superstar goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck, into a very reasonable contract, and he looks poised to win another Vezina Trophy. And they have a very minimal number of troubling contracts.
GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has some tough calls to make, with Ehlers at the top of the list, but the reality is he has eight members of his core locked in already and oodles of cap space to bring back the other free agents or find replacements. Expect Winnipeg to be active in the market going forward, as the Jets are going to be in win-now mode as long as Hellebuyck is playing like this.
The Avs are, like Carolina and Winnipeg, in great position in terms of having most of their stars locked up to reasonable contracts. Yes, Colorado has taken a hit in the standings this year due to all of the injuries and some issues in goal, but it remains among the ranks of the contenders, especially if newcomer Scott Wedgewood can help right the ship in net.
Where things may get tricky is the Avs only have 14 players signed for next season, and it's possible Rantanen's number eats up half their remaining cap space. Can they find a way to bring him back, get better in goal, and still fill out the roster?
The good news is they should have clarity on where Landeskog is at next season and be able to either move forward with him in the lineup or spend his LTIR money more than they have this year. (These cap calculations assume he's not on the roster for 2025-26.)
The Panthers are coming off a championship and have most of their core on reasonable contracts, well into the future. Getting Ekblad back feels like a wise decision, given he's somehow still only 28 and has been a franchise fixture forever. Bennett, meanwhile, is in the process of driving his UFA contract to the moon with the season he's having, so it's possible he's a cap casualty depending on how high the number gets.
Florida may not have a single bad contract on the books to a skater, but has committed nearly $15 million to its goaltenders and currently has the third worst save percentage in the NHL. The Panthers have missed Anthony Stolarz's stabilizing presence this season behind Sergei Bobrovsky, who turns 37 next fall and may need to be in more of a tandem role to preserve him for the postseason. Perhaps Spencer Knight, 23, can continue to grow into that role and assume more starts going forward.
Biggest decision: How do they handle their forward group in the offseason?
Another very strong team with a lot of core pieces locked in. The Stars are slightly different than some of the teams above them in that they do have some difficult contracts on the books with term -- Tyler Seguin's $9.85 million cap hit, in particular, stands out, even with his hot start this season -- but with Benn's deal coming off, things look better in 2025-26.
What they won't have beyond this season is leading scorer Duchene on an absolute sweetheart contract. He's in line for a big raise in this higher cap environment, and combined with some of the Stars' other decisions, could be a tough player to keep in Dallas.
Getting Wyatt Johnston signed may not be simple, either, given how fast the 21-year-old's stock is rising. But Dallas has enough cap room to comfortably remain a contender no matter what happens here.
The Canucks have less cap space than the teams above them here, and the OEL buyout number climbs to an ugly $4.7 million for the next two seasons, which certainly hurts. But the new regime in Vancouver has done a nice job of otherwise cleaning up the organization's cap sheet, to the point that they lack much waste throughout the lineup.
That's not to say they don't have question marks. What happens with Thatcher Demko's health is one big one, as is the performance of Elias Pettersson since signing his huge new deal. To contend, the Canucks need both to be big contributors.
They likely also, in an ideal world, need help on defense; Tyler Myers will be 35 in the near future and shouldn't be a No. 3 at this point in his career.
Vancouver won't have Boeser, Suter and Lankinen for the relative discounts they're on now in the future, so some of its contract efficiency will be challenged in free agency this summer, even with the cap going up.
Biggest decision: How aggressive should they be with all of their cap space?
The first non-playoff team on our list lands here for good reason. Utah has a lot of good young players and basically no anchors in terms of cap commitments to overpriced veterans. If they put Weber on LTIR, they have acres of cap space and 18 players already signed to NHL deals beyond this season.
So, yes, they can be pretty aggressive in trying to improve the roster. Perhaps as much as any team in the league.
They're going to have needs all over the roster, what with their struggles to score this season and with Vejmelka about to earn a big payday in goal, but better health on the blue line and smart use of their cap room should position them for a rise up the standings next season.
The kings of the Big Swing have some flexibility to make one at some point, if they so choose. Vegas' entire core up front and on defense is signed through at least next season, leaving only a couple decisions to make in net as its points of intrigue.
It'll be interesting to see if the Golden Knights are aggressive in adding either players with term or UFAs they can extend before the deadline, as they have some room to accommodate another scoring winger.
As for bad contracts, it's relatively thin pickings, although they'll have to be mindful of Alex Pietrangelo's and Mark Stone's age, given they still have two years remaining on their massive deals and, well, Father Time is undefeated. But the contention window remains very much open in Sin City.
The fourth-best record in the standings right now, no RFAs to re-sign, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie's contracts off the books, and nearly $30 million to play with in free agency?
They do have some key parts they'll have to pay or replace in free agency, but new GM Chris Patrick has a lot to work with here, especially if Alex Ovechkin keeps producing the way he has early this season.
Biggest decision: Do they bring back the Core Four yet again, including Marner on a mammoth new contract?
The Leafs are one of the harder teams to place on this list. They are having a very solid regular season, yet again, and they have some salary cap flexibility both now and in the offseason. They also have some solid bargain deals on the books, such as Anthony Stolarz ($2.5 million).
But they have huge decisions to make on Marner and Tavares that will dramatically affect every category being measured on this list. If both are re-signed -- combined with a new RFA contract for Matthew Knies -- much of their flexibility will disappear. If both leave, suddenly the Leafs have two key holes up front and $20 million to use in free agency.
Toronto doesn't have many bad contracts on the books for 2025-26 and beyond, but GM Brad Treliving will likely need to prioritize moving out a misfire or two like Ryan Reaves and David Kampf, who are overpriced for their roles, to create some better breathing room. Especially if they're going to go big on Marner.
Anytime your dead money situation can drop from $14.7 million to under $2 million, it's a good year for your cap.
The poison pill years of the Parise and Suter twin buyouts end this coming offseason, and that'll mean a big chunk of extra cap space to get aggressive in free agency. I've included Rossi's cap hit on a new RFA contract in my calculations, but with his name again circulating in trade rumors, that would be another big chunk of cap space available for GM Bill Guerin in the summer.
The Wild aren't without bad contracts (Yakov Trenin and Marcus Foligno stand out) but overall their cap sheet is fairly clean, and they'll have one more year before Kirill Kaprizov really cashes in on a new UFA deal. That gives them an opening to bolster their forward ranks, especially, given they already have five defensemen locked in and two young goalies set to take over.
Biggest decision: How do they upgrade the blue line with so little to spend?
Big raises on the way for Leon Draisaitl (a $14 million extension begins next season) and Evan Bouchard (2025 RFA) impact the Oilers' ranking here. As does the minimal amount of space they have left to make any improvements or replace the soon-to-be departed depth forwards who are UFAs.
Having Connor McDavid signed for $12.5 million for this season and next is a huge win, but bargain hunting is again going to be the order of the day in 2025.
Edmonton isn't without more serious blights on its cap, either. The Campbell buyout combined with Evander Kane making $5.1 million and Darnell Nurse earning $9.25 million all chip away at the Oilers' contract efficiency, even with their stars delivering the way they do on reasonable contracts.
This is going to be a tricky puzzle to piece together every offseason, especially considering goaltender Stuart Skinner's struggles and that newcomers like Victor Arvidsson haven't worked out as planned.
Biggest decision: How big should they go at the trade deadline with contention in sight?
Are the Brenden Dillon and Ondrej Palat contracts ideal? No. But the Devils balance that out easily with Jack Hughes signed for a song ($8 million until 2030) and most of the rest of their young core under contract at reasonable numbers until at least 2027.
The Devils also have a nice youth movement that's going to make a bigger impact soon, especially on the blue line, where Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec have already offered glimpses in promising auditions and Luke Hughes is about to break through.
So, $11 million in projected cap space, if the cap goes up to $94 million, and Shesterkin wants, what, $12 million or more?
Good luck to GM Chris Drury on that front.
The Rangers have one of the tightest cap situations leaguewide right now in terms of flexibility, but the good news is they score well in our other categories. Even with the angst over their play so far this season, this is a playoff roster, and they lack many awful contracts. Moving out Jacob Trouba would solve some of the pain, although RFA negotiations with K'Andre Miller, William Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko are shaping up to potentially be difficult.
And Mika Zibanejad's struggles this season are a bit of a red flag, given he's signed for another five years at $8.5 million.
This isn't going to be easy to navigate, but it's also not an impossible situation as they do have a lot of talent.
Biggest decision: With their roster in transition, to what extent should they go big in free agency?
Probably the NHL's biggest pleasant surprise so far, the Flames have a really interesting outlook from a salary cap perspective. They have one truly awful contract (Jonathan Huberdeau's $10.5 million), some aging pieces making OK money with term (led by Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund), and then some nice value plays (basically their whole blue line).
Top that off with Dustin Wolf putting up a star turn in net while making close to league minimum ($850,000 for this season and next) and they're set up to be a team to watch as they retool their roster. The Flames are drowning in unused cap space this season, but there's a case to be made for them to be aggressive in free agency next year to push this group forward. Or, at minimum, to weaponize that cap space in some fashion more than they have this year.
No team has more committed to next season's cap than the veteran Lightning, who have 16 players locked in, including their entire core. In a way that's a good thing -- this remains a solid team -- but after a 13th-place finish (and early playoff exit) last season, they so far look relatively the same again this season.
There are bargains on this roster, led by Brandon Hagel's $6.5 million contract as he's on pace for a 100-point season. But without some real heroics from Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal, the Lightning again feel more like a dark horse than a contender. And the core that won them those championships in 2020 and 2021 keeps adding miles to the odometer.
It's fitting that the Kings land here, right about average, because that encapsulates what this team seems to be right now. They'll probably make the playoffs. They probably won't go deep. And they'll do it all over again next year.
This past offseason's handiwork in adding Darcy Kuemper and Joel Edmundson hurt their cap allocation more than any other moves they've made, although Father Time is starting to come for Drew Doughty, who turns 35 later this week and has an $11 million cap hit for two more years.
But having Brandt Clarke on his entry-level deal for another season is a real boost, as is Adrian Kempe's bargain of a contract. The Kings have enough cap space to upgrade on their pending UFAs in the offseason, too, offering some hope for pushing the West's contenders more aggressively down the road.
Biggest decision: How do they fend off what looks like a step back this season?
As has been well-documented, it's been a tough season in Beantown. They've made the coaching change, however, and started to put together some wins, so it's possible things turn around, especially if they get more saves from Jeremy Swayman.
Weighing them down some are the two additions from this past offseason, Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov. Beyond that, however, the Bruins aren't saddled with many bad contracts.
They do have some money to play with in the offseason, but after bringing back Marchand and either re-signing or replacing Frederic and Brazeau, it's not going to be enough to make much of a transformation. They simply look rather ordinary unless their big money group -- led by David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Swayman -- can elevate them beyond average.
Biggest decision: After 13 years out of the playoffs, is this season the time to make a bold move?
Heading into the weekend, the Sabres were on a rare run, going 7-3-0 and climbing into playoff position in the suddenly not-so-intimidating Atlantic Division. It's something the fan base has been waiting eons for, and the good news is it looks fairly sustainable.
A lot is going to hinge on getting their key RFAs signed to reasonable contracts this offseason and then using the money left over to improve their depth. The good news is they're not drowning in expensive commitments to underperforming players, even if they'd like to see more from Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn right now.
Columbus is second to only the Sharks in projected cap room for the summer. And with just 12 players under contract for 2025-26, the Blue Jackets are going to need to be aggressive with it to fill our their lineup and get to the salary floor, which could be as high as $73 million next season.
They've played well this year versus expectations, getting strong offensive contributions from Kent Johnson and their three young Russians on the rise (Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakov and Dmitri Voronkov), most of whom are signed cheap for next year.
There are some bad contracts on the books here, led by Erik Gudbranson and Elvis Merzlikins, but you can start to see the beginnings of a road up under new GM Don Waddell. Especially with so many good young pieces coming in the next few years and some real cash to start to fill in the gaps around them.
It's been a tough start to the season in Ottawa. At U.S. Thanksgiving, they were tied for the seventh worst points percentage in the NHL, a 78-point pace that's identical to last year's disappointing season.
Part of that can be attributed to disappointing additions in the offseason. Linus Ullmark has yet to live up to his billing, let alone the $8.25 million cap hit he'll have next season. Michael Amadio has just four points in 22 games after signing for $2.6 million.
And question marks remain over whether some of the incumbents, such as Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris, can stay healthy and/or live up to their $8 million cap hits.
It's not all bad news, as several of Ottawa's stars are fairly paid, but the Senators are simply not getting a lot of extra value throughout the lineup and they're committed to a lot of money for a roster performing this poorly.
Biggest decision: Can they weaponize their extra cap space to bring in more futures?
The Habs are another team that's difficult to categorize. They're young. They're rebuilding. And they're bad. But they also have some great contracts -- like those for Sam Montembeault and Cole Caufield -- and some reasons for hope for the future.
GM Kent Hughes will need to determine how he can best use all that room in the offseason to push this team forward, which may involve moving out more veterans with term to bring back assets. Players like Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher make more than they should, but they will have value to playoff teams, especially if Montreal decides to retain salary in any deals. And the Canadiens could get a haul for someone like Mike Matheson and his very reasonable contract (one more year after this one at $4.9 million) if he goes on the block.
It's been a frustrating season in some ways in Montreal, but they're well-positioned to come out of this ahead if they make the right moves.
The rise of Lukas Dostal into a No. 1 netminder is a pleasant surprise, but it also shines a light on the John Gibson situation, as he carries an awfully large contract ($6.4 million cap hit for the next two seasons) for a middling veteran backup.
When The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn ran his contract efficiency rankings in the summer, the Ducks cap sheet was basically a sea of red, something that has to change as they attempt to move up the standings. Some of the bad deals are headed out to pasture as UFAs, but there remain some veteran eyesore deals on the books.
That said, Anaheim has so much cap room that it's hardly constrained by a wasted few million here or there. Like several other bad teams on this list, the Ducks are going to need to prioritize turning cap space into picks, prospects and young players on whom they can make savvy bets.
Getting the RFA contracts for Dostal and Mason McTavish right will be a good start, as they look like two solid pillars to build around.
Biggest decision: Is now the time to help the roster make a playoff push before the deadline?
That is a lot of dead money. The good news is Ellis can go off the books on LTIR if they need the space, and the other black marks only have one season remaining, as the Flyers attempt to exit rebuild mode.
What makes their cap situation difficult to read is that while they have 19 players signed for next season, they're also clearly looking hard at the trade market. They also have a lot of RFAs who need new contracts, contracts that could end up eating up much of their 2025-26 flexibility. And it's unclear what exactly Morgan Frost, Tyson Foerster, Jamie Drysdale and Ivan Fedotov are going to become as NHLers.
Philadelphia also has a handful of overpriced veterans sprinkled on its cap sheet beyond this season (i.e. Sean Couturier and Rasmus Ristolainen), deals that take away from some of the positives like the play of Calder candidate Matvei Michkov and young defensemen Cam York and Emil Andrae.
The future looks bright, depending on how the Flyers navigate these financial hurdles over the next eight months.
The Red Wings are once again a .500 team, as the rebuild approaches a decade. There are some flickers of hope in the play of the likes of Simon Edvinsson, who looks like he'll be a top-pairing D for years, but there's a lot of grimness here, too.
They've whiffed on a lot of free agents, many of whom have plenty of term left. Ville Husso's contract will finally, mercifully come off the books in July, but Andrew Copp, J.T. Compher, Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Holl and Ben Chiarot are collectively eating up nearly $25 million next season. Erik Gustafsson has been a low-level disaster, too, as yet another NHL coach doesn't trust him enough to give him real minutes.
The good news is they have one of the top prospect pools in the game, and at some point, reinforcements are coming. For now, however, they need to stop lighting money on fire in free agency and start to find some value propositions in the market. Perhaps they can even find a way to offload some of their mistakes along the way?
Biggest decision: How do you best support the young cast without more free-agent misfires?
We all know Chicago is still in the midst of a long teardown rebuild, so signing a few overpriced veterans to serve as mentors isn't the end of the world. That said, the Blackhawks have a lot of bad money on the books right now, which makes it hard to place them very high on a ranking like this.
In fact, the only really good contract they might have on their books that has term (other than Connor Bedard and the other ELCs) might be Alex Vlasic's.
This is a roster years away from contention, though. Perhaps the best play here will be to take on other teams' bad money as a way to continue to add future assets. It's hard to see many of these veterans being around the next time this group makes the playoffs.
Biggest decision: Can they turn half a roster of cap space into something that will accelerate the rebuild?
Another team that was successful for ages that's now in the midst of an ugly teardown. The Sharks have enough cap space to do some serious damage on the free-agent market, but the question for the organization will be whether now is the time to spend big.
The good news is they're finally getting to the end of some of their legacy contracts like $7 million a season for Marc-Edouard Vlasic that has only one year left. And as evidenced by the UFA list above, so many of their deals are only for this season that they'll have endless flexibility after a trade deadline purge and into free agency.
Keeping the contracts short-term going forward makes sense, as they don't want to have any more ugly commitments when Macklin Celebrini -- who is already showing signs of being ahead of schedule -- establishes himself as a superstar.
When you go from making the playoffs to signing three of the biggest UFAs in the summer to suddenly sitting 31st a quarter of the way through the following season, with your GM wondering aloud if he should rebuild, that's ... not great. To put it mildly.
If the Predators continue to bomb out, they're going to face a real crossroads. This isn't a young roster -- they were the NHL's second oldest team at season's start -- and their splashy new additions all came with contracts that looked questionable at the time and appear even worse now that they're not producing.
Nashville's somehow already committed nearly $80 million to this, with 17 players signed for next season, and it has some superstars (Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Juuse Saros) that should be able to elevate the team well beyond the league's basement over time. But you add in the massive buyouts still on the books that eat up nearly 10 percent of the cap, and it's a tough situation.
Maybe the stars get this turned around, but it's getting late early in Tennessee this year.
Nearly $70 million in 2025-26 dedicated to one of the NHL's oldest rosters that's currently fourth last in the league. With one of the greatest players of all time on it, still playing well above his $8.7 million cap hit.
The Penguins' downfall has been hard to watch over the last few years. This is a franchise that has needed to enter a rebuild for a while now, but with new ownership pushing back against a teardown, and Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang still playing solid hockey, what exactly do you do here?
Pittsburgh's bad contracts have started to look worse with age, beginning with Tristan Jarry, who has already cleared waivers this season and owns a gnarly .868 save percentage. Jarry combined with Ryan Graves, Rickard Rakell, Noel Acciari, Kevin Hayes and Erik Karlsson are making an eye-watering $30 million-plus, and they all have term remaining beyond this season.
In fact, two of the Penguins' best contracts (Pettersson and O'Connor) are going UFA and those players may be trade deadline casualties.
The Kraken have been a bit of a strangely built club from their inception. How they handled the expansion draft was odd. A lot of their more recent signings have felt overpriced and misguided. Their prospect pool is middling. And their cap sheet is now cluttered to the point they really don't have a lot of flexibility.
Meanwhile, they're off to another below-average start, and the playoffs feel like a pretty steep long shot. It's hard to get a read on what the plan is in the Pacific Northwest right now.
Joey Daccord and Vince Dunn have been nice wins for the organization, but they've both now been paid and are overshadowed by contracts given to Chandler Stephenson, Philipp Grubauer, Andre Burakovsky and Brandon Montour.
The good news? They probably don't have enough cap room this summer to do any more damage on July 1.
Biggest decision: How do they get better with very little room to work with?
The Blues are almost already capped out for next season, despite being 24th in the standings and struggling desperately to score. They haven't picked higher than 10th in the draft since 2008, and their prospect pool ranks in the middle of the pack.
They have some impressive talent in Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, and their twin offer sheets against the Oilers have worked out well, but there are a lot of over-the-hill players on this roster committed to too much term and dollars.
There aren't many wins on the Blues cap sheet right now. Or in the standings, for that matter.
The Islanders have one of the worst records in the league and are third last in goals per game. They're brutal on the power play and the penalty kill. Their pricey goalie tandem is producing close to league average results. And they also have one of the NHL's oldest rosters and are committed with term to some of their worst overpayments.
They have some tough RFA calls to make, led by Noah Dobson, who's earned a massive raise. And their top two scorers, who are on two of the organization's better contracts, are about to go UFA and land huge paydays.
I'm not sure that $9 million in cap space is going to be enough to right the ship here.