LSU and Alabama both enter Saturday's meeting 6-2. To this point, their seasons aren't all that different. Both notched big upset wins at home and both dropped conference games to a ranked opponent on the road.
Not much separates these two squads right now. Both teams are good, but neither looks like it belongs in the top tier of national title contenders. You don't have to look closely to find flaws on either side, but you don't have to look hard to find obvious strengths either.
Both have QBs capable of taking over games -- each in their own way. Both have blue-chips across the board at wide receiver and future NFL players on the offensive line.
Today, we'll take a look at five numbers to know heading into this one. We'll try to look past all the inconsistencies and figure out exactly who these teams are. Of course, we'll have to wait until Saturday night to get some answers, but let's jump in and see if we can use numbers to tell us how this one plays out.
Alabama's offense is converting 40.22% of third downs this year, ranking 61st nationally. That's still above average, but when you look at conference play, Bama is second to last in the SEC with a 30.8% conversion rate on third down. Only Oklahoma is behind.
Conversely, LSU is one of the best third-down teams in the country. The Tigers are converting nearly 50% of their third downs vs. FBS opponents. Even in obvious passing situations, Garrett Nussmeier can stand in there and move the chains.
Alabama is facing an LSU defense that's one of the best at getting off the field on third downs. That's something LSU struggled with in the opener vs. USC, but Blake Baker's unit has begun to excel on late downs.
That speaks to how important early downs are in this game. If Alabama can stay on schedule, the Tide have the advantage. If LSU can get the Bama offense and Jalen Milroe in passing downs, LSU's defense levels the playing field.
LSU has to be able to run the football in this one. It's something LSU's struggled with since game one, ranking 112th in EPA/run on the year.
Brian Kelly said it after the Texas A&M game and said it again this week, but LSU can't be one-dimensional on offense. It puts too much pressure on Garrett Nussmeier to make plays and that's when interceptions happen.
LSU finding a run game can be the tide that lifts all boats. If Alabama consistently stuffs LSU, another long night is in store for the offense. But if LSU can get just enough push, the entire offense can open up.
For now, Alabama has the advantage in this department with a defense that ranks top 20 in EPA/rush allowed.
Alabama freshman receiver Ryan Williams took college football by storm in September. He's third in the SEC with 702 yards on the year but the most impressive aspect of his game remains the explosivness.
Williams is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. That ranks 6th in the SEC and is the best mark among any SEC receiver with more than 25 catches.
LSU's secondary is improving, but it's not completely there yet. One mistake and Williams can make them pay. If this game becomes a shootout, containing Bama's freshman star will be a challenge for LSU.
The Tigers could have to double Williams at points, leaving liabilities elsewhere on the defense.
Here's an area where LSU has an advantage: getting after the quarterback.
LSU is one of the most sack-happy teams in the country, ranking third nationally in sack rate. EDGE Bradyn Swinson is one of the SEC's most effective pass rushers and DC Blake Baker isn't afraid to draw up a blitz either.
That's a good matchup against a Alabama offense that ranks 92nd in sack rate allowed. This was an issue last year too given Milroe's tendency to hold on to the ball.
LSU's recipe for a successful night is to get consistent pressure on Milroe. If the Tigers do that, they'll keep Bama off schedule and maybe luck into a turnover too.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has thrown it deep 62 times this year. That's any throw with 20+ air yards or more. On those throws, Nussmeier is averaging just 10 yards per attempt thanks to a 32.3 completion rate.
The Tigers need to be more efficient when taking shots down the field. Receivers need more separation and Nussmeier needs to be more consistent in delivering the ball. An improved run game would go a long way toward opening up this area of the field.
Alabama's weakness on defense is in the secondary. The Tide corners are young and have been known to blow some coverages this year. That's a spot LSU needs to take advantage of and create explosive plays.