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US Jobs Robust, Manufacturing Mixed: Unemployment Down, Production Up, Outlook Cautious

By James Hyerczyk

US Jobs Robust, Manufacturing Mixed: Unemployment Down, Production Up, Outlook Cautious

Initial unemployment claims for the week ending September 14 decreased by 12,000 to 219,000, according to the US Department of Labor. This drop indicates a tightening labor market and suggests employers are maintaining workforce levels despite economic uncertainties.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell by 3,500 to 227,500. This downward trend further supports the notion of a robust job market, with fewer workers seeking unemployment benefits.

The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2% for the week ending September 7, while the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits decreased by 14,000 to 1,829,000.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for September 2024 revealed a complex picture of regional industrial activity. The current general activity index turned positive, rising to 1.7 from -7.0 in the previous month. However, new orders and shipments indices declined and entered negative territory, signaling potential challenges for manufacturers.

Despite mixed overall data, employment in the manufacturing sector showed improvement. The employment index rose from -5.7 to 10.7, indicating increased hiring activity. Concurrently, both input costs and prices received by manufacturers increased, with the prices paid index reaching its highest level since December 2022.

A higher proportion of firms reported increased production for the third quarter compared to those reporting decreases. The median capacity utilization rate remained stable at 70-80%. Labor supply continues to be a constraint for over half of the surveyed firms.

Manufacturers maintain a positive outlook for the next six months, with expectations for growth becoming more widespread. The future general activity index held steady at 15.8, while indices for new orders, shipments, and employment all showed improvements.

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