When the Raiders' head-coaching job opened in the middle of the 2023-2024 season, I wrote that there was only place to start the search for the fired Josh McDaniels' successor -- in Detroit with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
I didn't mention Johnson in anything more than passing when the Raiders' job again became vacant earlier this month, and not for fear of repetitiveness.
It was because I didn't think Las Vegas had a realistic shot at wooing Johnson, who has only grown more in demand over the last year and a half.
The 38-year-old North Carolina native has surprised the NFL world by passing on a handful of head-coaching opportunities over the last two offseasons to remain with the Lions. My -- and many others' -- thought was, why would the Raiders be the team he finally chooses to commit to?
The widespread perception was that the organization's negatives -- a tough division, no long-term answer at quarterback and recent dysfunction -- would far outweigh the positives -- a young roster, ample cap space and world-class facility -- for top-level coaching candidates.
That's beginning to look wrong, at least perhaps when it comes to Johnson.
He's emerged as the runaway favorite to land the Las Vegas gig with NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reporting earlier this week that, "there are a lot of people who, frankly, think he is getting it."
That's created one of the most optimistic buzzes around the Raiders' fan base in years -- as it should.
Johnson would be a homerun hire, an addition so undeniably promising that it's hard to believe the Raiders actually appear to be in position to pull it off.
There's still a ways to go. Johnson interviewed virtually with Las Vegas last week, but he also talked with Chicago, Jacksonville and New England (which ended up hiring former Titans coach Mike Vrabel).
He can't take in-person interviews until the Lions' season ends or the bye week before the Super Bowl (which Detroit is currently favored to participate in). Franchises in similar positions in the past have panicked and hired someone else, but the Raiders wisely don't appear to be in any hurry.
Johnson is worth the wait and would signal to the rest of the NFL that Las Vegas is serious about transcending its recent reputation as a laughingstock non-factor.
That might sound harsh but the rest of the league has taken for granted the Raiders consistently messing up and creating circuses in the 23 years since they last won a playoff game. After this offseason's hire, current owner Mark Davis will have employed more than four times the amount of coaches (nine) than he's overseen winning seasons (two) since taking over for his late father, Al Davis, in 2011.
And he's bungled most of those coaching searches.
The 69-year-old Mark Davis mostly gets a pass for elevating interim coach Antonio Pierce last offseason. Pierce had built significant momentum at the end of the 2023-2024 season, and Davis endured pressure from the team's two best players (Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby) to keep him.
But Adams ended up demanding a trade anyway, and Crosby has hinted at one.
The other full-time hire Mark Davis has made since moving the team to Las Vegas in 2020 is less forgivable. Bringing on Josh McDaniels ahead of the 2022-2023 season was a total flop.
The former Patriots' offensive coordinator flamed out in the same fashion he did in his first coaching job -- with divisional rival Denver no less in 2009-2010 -- by alienating his players and staff. Warning signs should have been evident in the interview process.
But the repeated failures led to Mark Davis approaching the opening differently this time around, including leaning on a fresh circle of confidants highlighted by new minority owner Tom Brady.
The seven-time winning Super Bowl quarterback is reportedly who's formed a connection with Johnson. There's much speculation on the pair's relationship -- and expect every word spoken by Brady in his commentating role for Saturday night's Washington at Detroit playoff game to be dissected -- but it's easy to see how they could be kindred football spirits.
The closest Johnson has come to taking a head-coaching position was last offseason when he nearly committed to the Washington Commanders. There was always some uncertainty on why he didn't end up in the nation's capital, but a recent story suggest it was because of a difference in philosophy at quarterback.
Washington reportedly informed Johnson it wanted to draft now current quarterback Jayden Daniels while he preferred to stick with 2023-2024 incumbent Sam Howell.
That would indicate Johnson wants a pocket passer for his offense -- like he has in Detroit with Jared Goff. Brady is the epitome of the modern pocket passer.
Maybe that's why Johnson doesn't see the Raiders' current quarterback situation as badly as most others.
It doesn't take much of a stretch to see Brady and Johnson being aligned on 2025 NFL Draft prospect Shedeur Sanders. The Raiders are strongly suspected to be enamored with the University of Colorado passer with Brady having mentored him, but Sanders will likely be gone by the time they pick sixth overall in the draft.
Third-year quarterback Aidan O'Connell might not be a bad fallback option with Johnson though. The Purdue University product took more of a leap than he's being credited for in his second season.
If the Washington reports are to be believed, O'Connnell was better than Howell was with Washington two years ago by every metric. Heck, O'Connell's QBR was four points higher than Goff's was in 2021-2022 when Johnson got promoted to the Lions' playcaller.
Detroit was 0-10 at that moment, but Johnson elevated the offense to respectability before the end of the season. Collectively, it's been one of the best units in the league ever since.
That doesn't guarantee Johnson is going to transition smoothly into being a head coach. There are always elements of uncertainty and outside factors that determine if a coach sticks.
But Johnson has every selling point a team could ever want, certainly a team like the Raiders. He's someone who could grow with the job and get time to guide what needs to be a near-complete rebuild like the one he contributed to in Detroit.
No one has been more coveted as a coach over the last three years than Johnson, and the Raiders securing his service would be a coup. It would be a signal that the Raiders are back.
Johnson could shock everyone again by sticking with the Lions or have a change of heart and head to the Jaguars or Bears.
But all the Raiders can control is their process. This time around, for once, the process appears to be sound.
They likely have or will craft a backup plan in case they lose out on Johnson as they continue to vet candidates and fulfill the NFL's Rooney Rule by interviewing minority coaches. But Plan A has revealed itself.
It took a long time but the Raiders have arrived in the right place.