Marvel Studios continues to rule the box office heading into the weekend, where director Julius Onah's MCU sequel Captain America: Brave New World tops the charts for its second weekend in a row after grossing $192 million worldwide in the previous frame.
Part of it's four-day weekend opening is $11 million domestic on Monday, followed by a $6 million Tuesday.
Eyeing roughly $15 million from its domestic Tuesday through Thursday ticket sales, Captain America: Brave New World should add an additional $28-33 million stateside to its debut weekend's $100 million, for a total of $143-148 million.
Internationally, Brave New World has tracked behind domestic sales, but not much. Figure about $15 million weekday combined gross (including Monday, which wasn't a holiday outside of the USA) and another $25 million over the weekend, raising the international box office to around $132 million.
Which means Captain America: Brave New World should finish somewhere around $275-280 million worldwide by close of business Sunday.
On the high end of outcomes, it might manage $35 million worldwide through the week and overperform toward a $290 million worldwide through the weekend. Low end, it could land around $260 million, which would signal even worse news ahead as bad buzz drives away walk-up business.
Since The Monkey seems destined to overperform, I don't see Captain America: Brave New World doing much above my $280 million weekend estimate. But I also think even the rough waters ahead -- due to that B- audience grade from Cinemascore and 49% "Rotten" critical reception at Rotten Tomatoes -- won't entirely sink a Marvel film featuring a Hulk, so I think it'll avoid the worst outcome.
Going forward, there aren't many opportunities for breakout performances by other films entering theaters against Captain America: Brave New World through the rest of February and March. Besides The Monkey, then, Brave New World will remain the only other big-brand game in town for theatergoers for several weeks.
That could mean Captain America: Brave New World gets a lot more walk-up business than expected, particularly in subsequent weeks when few recognized franchises or big stars are filling screens for those seeking a night at the multiplex. The Monkey will be the biggest competitor, and might even wind up taking the lead in weekday attendance at some point in weeks ahead.
It's early April when A Minecraft Movie hits theaters. While I am skeptical that movie will prove a breakout blockbuster, it's the first date on the calendar that could revive what looks like a coming box office slowdown, and the film's brand should be enough to at least guarantee a solid weekend with families in attendance.
Sneaks is the next potential breakout, on April 18th. So it's May 2nd when Marvel's second offering of 2025 Thunderbolts* charges into theaters, and I suspect a lot of that film's performance will depend on how things shake out for Captain America: Brave New World.
Longterm looks like there could be anywhere between $70 million to $100 million more on the table for Captain America: Brave New World through the rest of its run, during a slow box office period despite a strong start to the year overall.
That would put it around $350-380 million by the end of its run, which is well below studio hopes and expectations, and an unfortunate outcome for the franchise -- all the more unfortunate since it didn't have to be that way.
I do believe that there are enough unique gems out there in the next several weeks to prevent a depressing slump at the box office, but it would be hard for would-be blockbusters or breakouts to gain much traction.
The real tests for the box office, and for Marvel Studios as well as the superhero genre broadly, comes this summer when Fantastic Four: First Steps and Superman hope to spur enthusiastic attendance and renewed appetite for their respective superhero universes. So far, signs in both regards are good.
The trailers for both films are terrific and generated tremendous buzz and viewership, with Superman becoming the most-watched trailer for WB and DC in studio history, hitting an astounding 250 million views in just its first 24 hours.
But for Marvel, much depends on cashing in the chips it earned from audiences with Deadpool & Wolverine, delivering another film that nails the promise of its premise and reignites the feeling we got from films like the first Avengers movie.
So if Thunderbolts* also underperforms and/or gets low grades audiences after Brave New World's B- grade, then the MCU brand might need some extra marketing dollars put into reminding everyone not only that Fantastic Four: First Steps looks terrific and sets up the future of the MCU's upcoming two-part universe-rebooting extravaganza, but also that the first of those extravaganzas -- Avengers: Doomsday with Robert Downy Jr. as the titular villain -- is just around the corner in 2026 (and begins filming next month).
Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars cannot afford to underperform, or the entire Marvel brand will suffer the first true threatening blow to its reputation and financial security. Marvel Studios and their parent company Disney are well aware of that fact, and will surely do everything to prevent that from happening.
So I expect some serious retooling of the marketing approach in the coming weeks ahead of Thunderbolts*, and a sizable "all eggs in the basket" approach to making sure nobody sits out the arrival of Fantastic Four: First Steps this summer.
Meanwhile, Captain America: Brave New World holds the line for the MCU, fighting the good fight (and without enough backup, as I wrote about previously) but at least keeping people in theaters and lifting box office toward an increase over last year -- short-lived though it might turn out to be, it is still some more welcome news in the box office climate of recent years.