A five-day snow event has begun in Colorado's high country Valentine's Day Friday. Bringing with it: heavy snow and sizeable accumulations, to all three mountain zones across the state.
Snow will continue on Saturday and Sunday, with a shift toward heavier snows in the northern mountains.
More snow Monday and Tuesday will continue to increase Colorado's snowpack, particularly in the southern mountains. As of Thursday, Feb. 13, Colorado's snowpack is at 82% of median average, with 8.9 inches of snow water equivalent (10.9 inches is median average for the date) locked away in the snow.
Recap:
Snow started after sunset Thursday night in the southern and western mountains, with rather intense snowfall around the mountains near Powderhorn, Purgatory, Aspen/Snowmass and Telluride.
Snow accumulations for Thursday's first chairs in the southern mountains are between 8-15 inches, in the central mountains between 3-9 inches and in the northern mountains between 1-8 inches.
When comparing recorded totals from the ski areas to the ECMWF Total snowfall, Kuchera forecast model from Thursday afternoon (southern mountains 14-20 inches, central mountains 8-12 inches and northern mountains 6-10 inches), the math more or less checked out.
Forecast:
On Friday, snow continues to accumulate at a moderate rate all day across all three mountains zones, but will begin to shift toward the central and northern mountains on west southwest winds heading into Friday night.
Snowfall from Friday night through Saturday is forecast to be lighter in the southern mountains, but still falling, with an additional 4-7 inches.
However, snow will intensify in the central and northern mountains, with between 6-10 inches in the central mountains and 4-7 inches in the northern mountains. Saturday will be another powder day for skiers and riders in all three zones.
Avalanche warning in effect:
Also beginning Friday, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) is warning backcountry travelers that the avalanche danger will rise to HIGH (4 of 5) over the Valentine's Day and Presidents Day weekend, which is one of the busies and historically, most dangerous times of the season to recreate in the backcountry.
"We want people to enjoy a holiday weekend in the mountains, but they need to make sure their plan matches the avalanche danger, which will be higher than it has been in a month and a half," CAIC Director Ethan Greene said.
"Starting Friday, the avalanche danger will be HIGH in a lot of our mountains west of the Continental Divide," Greene said. "We're particularly concerned about avalanche accidents this weekend because portions of our snowpack are quite weak. We'll see heavy snowfall after a fairly dry period, and lots of people will be heading into the backcountry to enjoy the holiday weekend."
According to the CAIC, February is the deadliest month for avalanches in Colorado, and Valentine's Day through Presidents Day weekend is the most dangerous period of the season. Over the past 10 years, eight people have died in avalanches between February 14-16.
On Saturday night, snow tapers off drastically across all three mountain zones, but some lingering flakes should fall in the northern mountains, softening up the slopes for a light powder day Sunday.
Forecasted totals for Sunday's first chairs for the northern mountains range between 2-4 inches, in the central mountains between 1-3 inches and perhaps a trace-0.5 inches in the southern mountains.
On Sunday, snow moves back in, mainly north of Interstate 70 and intensifies throughout the day.
Additional snow accumulations for Monday's first chairs of 6-12 inches are possible in the northern mountains, 1-3 inches in the central mountains and a trace-1 inch in the southern mountains.
Overnight Monday, snow storm energy is forecast to stay in the northern mountains and not move southward into the central and southern mountains until Monday night.
Grand totals from this multi-day storm for the northern mountains are between 10-26 inches, in the central mountains between 16-32 inches and in the southern mountains between 14-30 inches.
Long-term forecast:
Snow continues into Tuesday across all three mountain zones. Possible accumulations of another 3-5 inches is possible by Wednesday morning.
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The potential for yet more snow Thursday into Friday is trending toward a definitive as well. More model runs over the next few days should give better data on snowfall totals and duration, but some models have snow falling in the northern, central and southern mountains during that time frame.
Today's 24-hour snow totals from Colorado ski resorts:
Arapahoe Basin - 2"
Aspen Highlands - 9"
Aspen Mountain - 3"
Beaver Creek - 3"
Breckenridge - 0"
Buttermilk - 3"
Cooper - 1"
Copper Mountain - 1"
Crested Butte - 7"
Echo Mountain - 0", plus tubing
Eldora Mountain - 0"
Granby Ranch - 1"
Hesperus - Closed for the season
Howelsen Hill - 5"
Kendall Mountain - 8"
Keystone - 0"
Loveland - 2"
Monarch - 1"
Powderhorn - 5"
Purgatory - 15"
Silverton - 14"
Snowmass - 5"
Steamboat - 8"
Sunlight - 5"
Telluride - 8"
Vail - 4"
Winter Park - 1"
Wolf Creek - 9"