CHAMPAIGN -- One of my recurring regrets over these many decades of covering Division I football is the unequal distribution of talent throughout 60-plus prominent universities.
A small group of elite programs repeatedly finish at the top. Five-star players are drawn to them by tradition and, in the new world of name, image and likeness, lucrative paydays.
Speaking to 100 Ohio State donors at a Columbus event two years ago, coach Ryan Day stated it would take $13 million to attain Buckeye football goals. That number has since exploded over $20 million, an amount that only a few can match.
Thus, unlike NFL Sundays, these college Saturdays are often distinguished by too many lopsided outcomes. For every thriller, like Georgia's 13-12 squeaker at Kentucky on Saturday night, there are multiple runaways ... even in conference play.
Meanwhile, in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, ESPN calculated 13 of 15 games had spreads of 61/2 points or fewer. Anything under a touchdown sounds like a tossup to me, and the NFL presents a constant, steady stream of tight, fourth-quarter shootouts. Kansas City is unique in capturing back-to-back titles as, the past 20 years, there have been 13 different Super Bowl champions.
A wild card
The new, 12-team college playoff offers something new and exciting in the realm of college competition.
What we'll see, directly below these perennial elite programs, is a mass of revitalized hopefuls with something attainable -- OK, it's a long shot -- to shoot for. Call them "wild card seekers," like major league baseball where seven non-division winners captured the World Series since 2000, including the Texas Rangers in 2023.
Point is, you don't have to win the conference to join football's postseason fun. The top 12 advance, and there's likely to be a surprise or two surfacing amid the circus atmosphere.
The significance for Illinois is that, even as a 3-0 record is slightly disparaged by UNLV's defeat of Kansas last Friday night in Kansas City, Kan., Bret Bielema's team embarks on consecutive road trips to Nebraska (Friday night) and Penn State (Sept. 28) that will determine whether the Illini are (1) serious about the playoff race or (2) will fall back into another forlorn quest for a mediocre bowl berth.
For the record, we are uplifted with the realization that Illinois has won three of the last four games against Nebraska, including two in front of 85,000 in Lincoln, and outlasted Penn State there in nine overtimes in 2021.
Glass half-full, half-empty
Based on the successful engagements with Eastern Illinois, Kansas and Central Michigan, the Illini have shown dramatic improvement in the secondary (six interceptions, one less than last season), a bend-but-don't-break defense that has permitted just two touchdowns, an exceptional kicking game and an upgraded aerial attack with Luke Altmyer becoming ultra protective (no interceptions) while completing 31 passes to Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.
If you're worried about Saturday's 10 penalties, that is correctable. Like turnovers, this aspect tends to vary from week to week.
However -- and here's the catch -- a veteran offensive line hasn't been consistent in either protecting Altmyer or igniting the running game.
Can of corn
The Illini, as expected, wore down Central Michigan on Saturday but had 19 runs (including three QB sacks) of four yards or less.
Overall, the Illini had 10 rushing attempts of zero or minus yardage. The ultimate total of 137 ground yards featured a 14-yard sweep by Kaden Feagin, 28- and 24-yard bursts by Josh McCray and a 16-yard spurt by Ca'Lil Valentine as backfield coach Thad Ward alternated the threesome while Aidan Laughery was held back by a minor injury.
Overall, Illinois appears healthy in preparing for this two-game road swing. Health is critical, particularly in the defensive line.
Outside rushers Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas have been as vital, in their own way, as defensive backs Xavier Scott and Miles Scott, and seventh-year addition Dennis Briggs Jr. (from Florida State, now 0-3) has been a positive addition.
It is intriguing to look ahead toward what is possible but, as Bielema emphasized, the Illini are centered on just one win, and that is Nebraska Friday night.
Early Las Vegas odds show Nebraska as an eight-point favorite, but there is a tendency to wonder: Are oddsmakers and gamblers impacted by Nebraska's distant past in this projection? And is freshman QB Dylan Raiola as special as they say?
More important here: Which way is Illinois headed?