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Matt Calkins: After Apple Cup win, could Washington State make the College Football Playoff?


Matt Calkins: After Apple Cup win, could Washington State make the College Football Playoff?

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times

SEATTLE -- The "Go Cougs" crowd is about to adopt a two-word mantra that was once as blasphemous as they come: "Go Dawgs."

In a time when there may have never been more animus toward their cross-state rival, Wazzu fans are in the unfamiliar position of becoming Husky honks.

WSU's 24-19 win over Washington on Saturday was one of the most satisfying in program history. The upset temporarily tempered the torment that came with the dissolution of the Pac-12.

But now something bigger is in play -- an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario for the players on the Palouse: A College Football Playoff berth.

Assuming they can get some help from UW.

Apologies for the you-totally-jinxed-it introduction that's looking more than two months ahead. It's just that ... it's quite possible Washington State (3-0) has already played its toughest opponent in the Huskies. This has little to do with the Cougs' strength and mostly to do with their schedule.

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Remaining for the former Power Five mainstay are San Jose State, Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, Utah State, New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming. None of those teams is in the AP Top 25 poll. Boise State is essentially 27th based on "others receiving votes," with WSU coming in at 31st.

Some might argue that beating Washington (2-1) makes this year a victory no matter what happens next. Others might say the rivalry win mixed with a bowl game would be enough for this season to satisfy. But what if the Cougs did run the table and somehow host a CFP game? Or what if they go 11-1 and still sneak in?

As it stands, ESPN's playoff predictor gives Washington State (3-0) a 24 percent chance to reach the 12-team playoff. That is tied for 16th among all schools in the FBS. The team WSU is tied with at 24 percent is Boise, which the predictor currently thinks will beat the Cougs on Sept. 28.

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Still, even at 11-1 the Cougs would have a legitimate shot to reach the CFP. In fact, the predictor is giving a one-loss WSU team a better-than-50% chance to make the playoff if that defeat comes against Boise, Oregon or Fresno State.

This is where the Huskies (along with Texas Tech) come into play. Wazzu fans need both of these Power Four foes to have respectable seasons to bolster WSU's résumé. Can the Red Raiders, who WSU beat 37-16 in Week 1, make waves in the now Oklahoma-less and Texas-less Big 12? Can UW upset any of its major Big Ten brethren such as Michigan, Oregon or USC?

I've said before that this year's Huskies were among the most mysterious teams in program history. The extent of the roster turnover mixed with the departures of seven NFL players taken in the first three rounds made predicting their season next to impossible.

Perhaps the Cougs exposed the state of their mediocrity, which may be a charitable description for UW. Or maybe the Dawgs are a decent team that lost to a quality opponent.

Few, if any, WSU fans are actually glad that the Pac-12 came apart. The tradition and financial benefits that stemmed from playing in a major conference will be nearly impossible to duplicate, even if the league is experiencing a modest re-imagining.

But in the very short term it might have opened up a path to the College Football Playoff in a way the old Pac-12 never would have. And the Cougs have earned the nation's rooting interest if they are able to get to that point.

It's still unclear if WSU is any good despite its unbeaten record and offensive production. But an average of nearly 44 points per game and wins over two teams from major conferences is about as auspicious a start as a program in its position could have. WSU could also become the source of a Pacific Northwest sports rallying cry the way the Huskies were last year. Meaningful games in late November? Few around here would turn that down.

Of course, it's easy to get amped up in September before future foes expose the reality of the situation. This was the case with Colorado last year, as the Buffs started 3-0 before finishing 4-8. This feels a little bit different, though.

I don't think anyone -- even the most passionate of Wazzu fans -- thinks this WSU team can actually compete for a national title. The Cougs do, however, have a chance to become national darlings.

They'll need many things to go right for that to happen. The Huskies succeeding is likely among them. Small concession. No matter where Washington ends up, WSU's bragging rights are staying put.

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