Week 1 provided a disaster for many pick 'em polls with the Bengals losing to the Patriots. There were also some close games in which favorites nearly went down, such as when the Bills needed to rally at home to defeat the Cardinals.
Each week of the NFL season, I'll share my picks for each game, and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of "Wait and See" because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that's the case, I'll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let's get to our Week 1 picks.
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
The Cowboys couldn't have looked much better in Week 1, defeating the Browns in Cleveland. They scored 33 points against the Browns' vaunted defense and limited their offense to just 17 points. Don't read too much into the Saints scoring 47 points against the Panthers in Week 1. With Derek Carr at the helm, they should struggle to score against the Cowboys.
The Panthers have the look of the worst team in the NFL. After their blowout loss to the Saints, they now will face a Chargers team that limited the Raiders to 10 points in Week 1. Don't expect the Panthers to be able to score enough to keep this game close.
The Ravens have had added time to rest after playing the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. They had a chance to pull off the upset, but Isaiah Likely had his toe on the line for what would have been a touchdown reception as time expired. The Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations, while the Raiders are just hoping to avoid a losing record. Take the Ravens on the road.
Kirk Cousins did not look good in his Falcons debut, throwing for 155 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against the Steelers. As he works his way back from a torn Achilles, it might take Cousins some time to get into a groove again. After an impressive Week 1 win Thursday against the Packers, the Eagles will have added time off with this matchup coming on Monday. Look for them to start out 2-0.
The Lions won in Week 1 at home against the Rams in a game that went to overtime. They were 6-2 at home last season and have the makings of one of the more potent offenses in the league. The Buccaneers smoked the Commanders at home in Week 1, but going on the road against a Super Bowl contender is a much more difficult task.
Don't read too much into the Vikings earning a 28-6 win over the Giants in Week 1. Daniel Jones is a mess and their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Hanging with the 49ers is an entirely different matter. Jordan Mason showed that he is more than capable of filling in if Christian McCaffrey (calf) is out again, which makes it easier to feel confident in the 49ers.
10 - Seattle at New England
Can the Patriots pull off two major upsets in a row? Having this game at home helps their cause, but don't expect the Seahawks to lay an egg like the Bengals did. The Bengals were limited at wide receiver, but the Seahawks have no health issues in that department after their Week 1 win over the Broncos. Running back Kenneth Walker III suffered an abdominal injury in that game, but he said he expects to be fine.
9 - Kansas City vs. Cincinnati
A rested Chiefs team at home is about as difficult as it gets. Their offense looked excellent against a difficult Ravens defense, with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both shining. If Tee Higgins (hamstring) is out again for the Bengals, this could get ugly in a hurry. Even if he does play, this is a tough spot for the Bengals to try and bounce back.
8 - Houston vs. Chicago
The only hesitation with picking the Texans here is that this game will be played in Chicago. Still, they have a vastly superior offense. Stefon Diggs caught two touchdown passes in his debut with the team against the Colts, while Nico Collins had 117 receiving yards. Joe Mixon also turned 30 carries into 159 yards and a touchdown. Caleb Williams has a ton of upside, but his 93 passing yards in Week 1 against the Titans showed that the Bears' offense is still a work in progress.
7 - New York Jets at Tennessee
The Titans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Week 1. Up 17-3 at the half, they lost despite Williams having such a rough performance. Their downfall was a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a Will Levis interception that was returned for a score. The Jets couldn't get much going against the 49ers' stout defense, but the Titans shouldn't be as difficult of a foe.
The Panthers looked worse than any other team in Week 1, but the Giants weren't far behind them. Jones was awful, throwing inaccurate passes and looking jittery inside the pocket.
The Giants' defense also didn't get much pressure on Sam Darnold outside of Dexter Lawrence. Jayden Daniels did plenty of damage with his legs in Week 1 and this game will be in Washington, so the Commanders are the way to go here. However, it's risky when picking between two potentially bad teams.
5 - Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
The Browns have the potential to have a great defense and Trevor Lawrence underwhelmed against the Dolphins in Week 1. However, Deshaun Watson was even worse for the Browns. I'll give the edge to the Jaguars because the Browns were 3-5 on the road last year. However, this could be a defensive struggle in which the team that makes the fewest mistakes comes away with the victory.
4 - Indianapolis at Green Bay
This would be an easy pick of the Packers if Jordan Love (knee) was available. However, with Malik Willis now under center, points might be difficult to come by. If this game was in Indianapolis, the Colts would be the play. The Packers could use their running game to pull out a win at home, so this game is just too risky to pick.
3 - Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Cardinals held their own against the Bills on the road in Week 1, while the Rams almost defeated the Lions on the road. The big news for this game is that Puka Nacua (knee) won't play. Still, I want no part in picking this game between NFC West rivals. Both quarterbacks are capable of carrying their team to a victory.
2 - Pittsburgh at Denver
The Steelers rode their defense to a win in Week 1. Their offense was limited, but they converted all six of their field goal attempts. Russell Wilson (calf) could return to face his former team, but the Steelers offense still likely won't be great. After throwing for just 138 yards to go along with two interceptions in Week 1, Bo Nix also leaves a lot to be desired for the Broncos. This game could come to who converts the most field goals.
1 - Miami vs. Buffalo
This is one of the marquee matchups of the week. I'll give the edge to the Dolphins because they were 7-2 at home last season, while the Bills were just 4-4 on the road. However, two division rivals facing off on Thursday Night Football make this a stay away for me.