It might seem pretty obvious who Boise State fans want to see win Saturday's matchup between the number ten seed SMU and the number four seed Penn State in the first round of the newly expanded College Football Playoffs. The winner will take on Boise State in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve.
The dark horse from Dallas is SMU. Southern Methodist's Mustangs are coming off of a close loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. They have an electric offense, and their one regular season loss came to a team the Boise State is familiar with in BYU. Although the Broncos didn't play the Cougars this season, they scored 50 against them last season, even though they gave up 65. But that was last season, and the Broncos are a far better team than they were a year ago.
Penn State has a storied college football history with two national championships, both under Joe Paterno and both in the 80s. Current coach James Franklin has been rebuilding since having a losing season in 2020, a meh season in 2021, and two much stronger seasons since. Like SMU, Penn State is coming off a loss in their conference championship game. The difference is that Penn State lost to Oregon, the number one-ranked team in the country, while SMU lost to 16th-ranked Clemson.
It's easy to think SMU is an easier win for Boise State. The Broncos defense is more than capable of shutting down the SMU offense. SMU's rush defense must have Ashton Jeanty salivating, but Boise State is a different kind of football team. If they face SMU and have a cakewalk into the Orange Bowl, we'll all be excited, but if they have to go through Penn State, things could be even sweeter for the Broncos.
Historically, Boise State thrives on proving doubters wrong, and facing Penn State could provide them with the psychological advantage that a coach like Spencer Danielson might capitalize on. Using the "it's us against the world" approach to beat the Nittany Lions could be the spark they need to win the first National Championship in school history. There's no guarantee that Boise State will be back in this position next year, so now is the time to use whatever motivation tactics at his disposal to generate a win.
New Year's Eve will either be the end of an SMU Cinderella story or a David vs. Goliath matchup against Penn State. We may be watching a movie about this season in a couple of years.