Where do the Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews go from here?
It was clear even before head coach Craig Berube revealed last week Matthews was still "fighting through" something that all was not right with the 27-year-old; even after he returned from a nine-game absence, which included a trip to Germany for treatment, Matthews still wasn't quite Matthews.
Then he played Friday night in Buffalo and aggravated an undisclosed injury that's dogged him since training camp when he took a hard cross-check to the left side from Sabres defenceman Dennis Gilbert.
The surface-level numbers following his first absence -- six goals and 12 points in 11 games -- were OK enough, though still not to Matthews' high standards, especially the all-time standards of last season. The stuff below the hood is also un-Matthews-like: The Leafs were outscored 9-7 in his five-on-five minutes in those 11 games and barely winning the shot quality battle (51 percent expected goals). For context, the Leafs outscored teams by 28 goals at five-on-five last season with Matthews on the ice.
More often than not, Matthews looked like he simply couldn't move at full power when he was skating through the middle of the ice or hustling on the backcheck.
The data says as much: Matthews' top skating speed this season (34.8 kilometres an hour) sits below the NHL's 50th percentile and well shy of his own top mark last season (36.1). His bursts of speed are also lagging behind last season's compared to his peers.
His takeaways and shot blocking have also dropped.
Usually as sharp as they come with the puck, Matthews has been unusually error-prone. His giveaway rate has never been higher. More than that, Matthews hasn't been able to weave through defenders (with the odd exception) the way he so often does when healthy.
Nor is his shot overpowering goalies like it did last season when he scored 69 times, tied for the 15th-highest total in NHL history. Matthews is shooting only 9.8 percent on his famous wrist shot, the lowest mark of his NHL career.
Clearly, he still isn't right. So what do the Leafs do about it? Can they do anything to ensure Matthews is Matthews for the playoffs?
Does surgery of some kind become an option now in light of the way things have gone? Would another trip to Germany help?
Rest didn't really work the first time, prompting the overseas trip for a "general check-up but also to get some work done" as GM Brad Treliving explained it at the time. Will more rest help this? Does Matthews remain out until the New Year? Would a lengthier absence do the trick? If they haven't already, Matthews and the Leafs need to start contemplating whether he should sit out the 4 Nations Face-Off in February and grab nearly two weeks of rest there.
The Leafs may simply have to "manage" the injury all season with as much treatment as possible and rest where he can get it. Matthews might have to grind his way through, just as he did at the beginning of the season and again after he returned.
Matthews at 75 percent is still a very good player -- maybe not the Leafs' clear-cut best player and certainly not an MVP-type wrecking ball who dominates with a capital D at both ends of the ice, but very good. He's been either the third- or fourth-best Leafs forward this season.
The difference between this player and the healthy one is significant, though.
During his last three healthy seasons, Matthews won the Rocket Richard Trophy three times, finished top four in Hart Trophy voting three times (including the first win by a Leaf since 1955) and was named a finalist for the Selke Trophy during the same season he scored 69 goals.
Can the Leafs still win a Stanley Cup with the 75 percent version (or less, even) of Matthews? It's obviously not likely, but not impossible either.
It's worth keeping in mind this team won its only playoff series in the last 20 years in the spring of 2023 during Matthews' last injury-plagued season. He had gotten healthier as that season unfolded but still wasn't chugging at full speed come playoff time.
Just last spring, this team won Games 5 and 6 against the Bruins without Matthews.
The Leafs have proven this season they can trudge along with and without a banged-up Matthews when co-stars like Mitch Marner and William Nylander elevate and the John Tavares-led supporting cast steps up. The defensive efforts in particular have popped in his absence.
And yet it was going to be a challenge for the Leafs to forge deep into the postseason with a healthy Matthews. To do so with a less-than-healthy version makes a long run that much harder -- maybe too hard in the end.
Is there a solution here that gets him closer to full strength? That's what the Leafs and Matthews need to figure out during the upcoming break.
1. What could make another extended Matthews absence a little thornier for the Leafs this time? The schedule.
Matthews was absent for nearly four weeks the first time but missed only nine games during a lighter portion of the schedule.
The Leafs play back-to-back immediately after the Christmas break, then an afternoon game on New Year's Eve and 13 games in January.
2. Matthews' persistent injury only deepens the need for the Leafs to acquire another top-nine centre -- not just as insurance for a Matthews absence, but to lighten his minutes somewhat (both in quantity and quality) when he is in the lineup, healthy or not.
That's part of what the front office has in mind here.
I wonder, though: Will Treliving and company set their sights on acquiring a higher-quality centre in light of Matthews' injury issues? Someone better than, say, Yanni Gourde? (Is he even available?)
3. The Leafs should consider cutting Matthews' minutes regardless in an attempt to ensure he's as fresh as possible in the spring. Matthews is basically playing as much as last season at just shy of 21 minutes a night. One quick and easy cut: the penalty kill, where Matthews is logging two minutes a game.
4. The last time a Leafs season ended in which Matthews didn't lead, or co-lead, the team in goals: 2018-19, when Tavares scored 47 in his first year with the team. (Matthews and Nylander each had 40 during the 2022-23 season.)
All signs point to Nylander, on pace for 56 goals, claiming the team goal-scoring crown this season.
Berube downplayed all the mixing and matching on defence on Saturday as normal in-game situational stuff. But it wasn't that. This was different.
Consider how things went for Oliver Ekman-Larsson at five-on-five against the New York Islanders. Ekman-Larsson spent 5:15 with Simon Benoit, 4:24 with Chris Tanev, 4:22 with Morgan Rielly, 3:55 with Conor Timmins and 2:28 with Jake McCabe. Which means he played with everyone for more than a shift or two.
It's become increasingly clear the coaching staff isn't sure how to build three solid pairs with what they have.
The one pair they do like, for good reason, is Tanev and McCabe. But getting those two together means awkward fits for the remaining two pairs.
Part of the problem: Three of the Leafs' top four defenders are lefties and playing one of those lefties with Tanev means either stapling the other two together or using Benoit or Timmins in a more prominent position.
There isn't an obvious solution to these puzzle pieces.
Domi's first 22 games: 0 goals, six assists, 27 shots.
Domi's last four games: Three goals, two assists, 10 shots.
Thanks in part to an emerging Domi-led third line, the Leafs are suddenly scoring a bunch at five-on-five. Their totals in the last six games: 3, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3.
The Leafs are producing 2.75 five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in December. That number in November was 1.58.
The only problem: The five-on-five goals against are suddenly rising, too.
Matt Murray has a chance to get his NHL career back.
If he can stay healthy, Murray has at least the next month, and probably longer, to prove he can be an NHL goaltender again.
Murray figures to make in and around a half-dozen more starts in support of Joseph Woll while Anthony Stolarz recovers from a knee procedure. Play well and Murray, who signed a one-year deal to be the Leafs' No. 3 last summer, might be able to parlay that into a more NHL-focused contract next season. Maybe he's a No. 2 somewhere instead.
It's possible Murray plays an even bigger role than expected with the Leafs this season given the fragility of the two goaltenders in front of him, both of whom have already missed time with injuries. Who knows when else he'll be needed beyond the current stretch.
Murray isn't as old as you might think either; he's actually four months younger than Stolarz. He'll turn 31 in May.
Like Stolarz and Woll, the big thing for Murray will be health. Can he stay on the ice?